As much as pundits and the media will hate to hear this, the hard truth is that in races where polls put the candidates competing within the margin of error, the only statistically valid conclusion is that the race is highly competitive.With better education as to the statistical limitations of polling data, there would be far fewer Election Day surprises. Compared to 2016’s 15% undecided voter pool, a scant 4% of voters now report being  Another key difference from 2016 is that voters hate one presidential candidate far more than the other. This is, of course, exactly where the Trump vs. Biden polling is right now.

As Harry Enten recently noted at CNN, “An average of recent polls finds that a majority of voters (about 55%) believe that Trump will defeat Biden in the election. This can lead to overestimates of Democratic candidate support, which is why Clinton failed to capture the White House, and why Democrats across the Senate and House maps underperformed despite strong poll numbers. Although it’s a complex topic with many moving parts and contributing elements, three major factors generally contribute to election night surprises.The most common explanation is a sudden, last-minute shift in voter preferences, which, while rare, certainly can happen. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2020 presidential election poll is used. Gamblers are motivated to put their money down when they have a …

For direct links to presidential or Senate polling detail in each state, Use the sort to view the polls in different ways. Trump Sows Doubt in U.S. Election With Polls Showing Biden Leading By . Most of this confusion ties back to what’s called the “margin of error.” Margin of error introduces error estimates ranging from 3-to-5 points. This is exactly what happened in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, when key Midwestern states in the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” consistently produced leads for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump that were well outside of the margins of error, but where Trump ended up with narrow victories — a trifecta of upsets for the record books. In 2016, pollsters expected an electorate that was slightly more diverse and younger than the one that ended up casting ballots, especially in cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. The US election polls and the betting odds are now saying the same thing – punters aren’t backing Donald Trump anymore. The 2016 election has left many voters in 2020 with polling PTSD. During the Democratic primary period, Joe Biden, now the party’s presumptive nominee and then one of only two Democratic prospects with name recognition high enough to conduct head-to-head ballot tests against President Trump, enjoyed on average a Had the dynamics of the race stayed there, Democratic hand-wringing and poll-doubting would no doubt still be quite intense. The average methodology is summarized below the table. More likely though, what looks like a last-minute preference change is usually the product of a decent number of undecided voters coming down the stretch who break decisively against the candidate who has been leading in the polls, causing that lead to reverse at the ballot box. Another major source of poll-result disconnect occurs because of the way polls are interpreted. Numbers in parentheses represent that state's electoral votes. States with no polling yet are not displayed on this page. “The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” This election adage gets tossed out pretty much every time a new political poll drops — a product of the many election night surprises seen over the years, where the winner of the election ended up being the loser of the polls.

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These turnout surges form the foundation of my election forecasting work: the American electorate is changing significantly due to “negative partisanship,” which argues that along with positive emotions about their own political party, partisans experience negative emotions about the opposition party, particularly hate and fear. Pollsters weight surveys to reflect anticipated turnout — the demographic composition of the electorate that actually shows up to vote — in terms of race, gender, age, and education. One of the reasons people, myself included, were dismissive of such "protest voting" data is the well-known and well-documented tendency for A second source of poll-result disconnect occurs when the electorate ends up “looking different” than what pollsters modeled.

And as in 2016, the 2020 polling is sending clear signals. Granted, in this polarized era, it's all but impossible to be loved in the political arena. If five polls are found, and there are other qualifying polls on that same calendar date, those will also be included. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. This is partly what happened in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016.

Here’s how this will likely play out on Election Day Published: July 27, 2020 at 12:05 p.m. View the results of 2020 election polls.
In terms of polling, we've never had access to more data, and other than Pollsters, and the people who consume polls can mitigate polling "surprises" by demystifying polls and familiarizing themselves with the capabilities, and the limitations, of horse race polling. Already, The 2020 election also stands in stark contrast to 2016 in terms of how many undecided voters there are. Pollsters, and those who covered them, generally failed to notice or at least greatly minimized a clear signal in the 2016 data — the unusually high numbers of voters breaking for the third party or write-in option.

The Trump-Clinton race was much more volatile, with wild swings in the polls as the election approached. The “Dems in Disarray” issue of 2016 has been replaced with early signs of solid party unity as Democrats rally around Biden.


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